Max Verstappen delivered a remarkable recovery drive at the São Paulo Grand Prix, rising from a pit-lane start to a podium finish after an engine change and a difficult qualifying session. But while the performance reminded fans of his exceptional racecraft, the result also underscored a harsh reality: Verstappen’s championship hopes for the Formula 1 2025 season are slipping away.
Lando Norris’ victory in Brazil extended his lead to a nearly unassailable margin. With only three Grands Prix remaining and 83 points still available, Verstappen sits 49 points behind the McLaren driver and appears on the brink of elimination from the title fight. Even Oscar Piastri — now 24 points behind Norris — remains closer than the defending champion.
So the question naturally arises: when did Verstappen really lose the 2025 title?
A poor qualifying in Brazil wasn’t the root cause, and Verstappen himself insists the championship was decided much earlier. Based on driver comments, team insight, and season-long performance trends, three major theories explain how the title slipped away.
Version 1: Verstappen’s costly misjudgement at the Spanish GP
When Verstappen was asked to evaluate his own 2025 season, he pointed to a single moment he would take back — the Spanish Grand Prix restart.
During that race, Verstappen was frustrated by a switch to hard tyres, which left him struggling for grip. A mistake at the final corner allowed Charles Leclerc to get alongside, resulting in contact. Moments later, George Russell attacked Verstappen into Turn 1, forcing the Red Bull driver to cut the chicane. The stewards instructed him to return the position — a call Verstappen felt was unfair in the heat of the moment.
Instead of conceding cleanly, Verstappen immediately re-attacked Russell just after giving the place back. The move triggered another collision and ultimately earned him a 10-second penalty. What should have been a fifth-place finish with 10 points turned into a single point — a loss of nine valuable points in one Sunday.
Had Verstappen simply accepted the situation, his deficit to Norris today would be 40 points instead of 49. Still difficult, but not as hopeless.
Looking back, Verstappen admits his reaction was emotional:
“I can’t step out of the car feeling like I only gave 80%. That moment was not my best. You have to learn from it.”
Ironically, after Spain, Verstappen’s gap to the leader was also 49 points — exactly the deficit he carries now.
Version 2: Red Bull’s early-season performance collapse
While Verstappen’s error in Spain was costly, he argues the real title damage was done much earlier. From the season opener to the Dutch Grand Prix, Red Bull simply wasn’t fast enough — struggling with tyre warm-up, setup sensitivity, and inconsistent race pace.
As Helmut Marko explained, the RB21 had an unusually narrow operating window:
“A small change of 0.5 mm in ride height or a slight change in track temperature completely shifted the balance. We didn’t control the car.”
Throughout the first half of the season, Red Bull repeatedly fell outside the ideal setup window. This inconsistency left Verstappen unable to challenge McLaren on a range of circuits:
• China: poor sprint weekend, fourth place
• Bahrain: tyre degradation made the car uncompetitive
• Miami: dropped from pole to P4
• Britain: spin in wet conditions
• Monaco: lacked pace from the start
• Hungary: extreme overheating and balance issues
Meanwhile, McLaren capitalised on every opportunity. Norris and Piastri collected podiums at nearly every track, except Canada, where they collided.
When Red Bull finally stabilised development — around Zandvoort — Verstappen immediately felt the difference:
“We were trying extreme setups because we didn’t understand the car. I felt like a passenger. Only by mid-season did we regain control.”
Insiders later hinted the RB21’s core design may have been fundamentally flawed, rooted in offseason development choices.
Version 3: Red Bull lost the 2025 title two years earlier — through car philosophy
The most far-reaching theory traces the failure back to 2023, when Red Bull continued iterating on the RB18–RB21 concept instead of adopting a fresh design philosophy like their competitors.
While McLaren, Ferrari, and Mercedes rebuilt their cars from the ground up across the 2022–2024 regulation era, Red Bull stuck to incremental evolution. It worked brilliantly during seasons when rivals were lost — but became a liability once competitors finally converged.
Red Bull heavily relied on wind-tunnel peaks and simulator data to extract theoretical maximums. But simulation tools cannot fully capture dynamic effects such as:
• wind gusts
• surface bumps
• real tyre behaviour
• transient aero stability
• load variation at 300 km/h
• brake-phase weight transfer
The result was a car that looked fast in theory but was unpredictable and difficult to set up in reality. Adrian Newey, long known for prioritising driver feel over simulator perfection, reportedly grew distant from the project before eventually stepping away.
When a new management structure arrived mid-season — with Laurent Mekies taking over — Red Bull shifted back toward a driver-feedback-led engineering model. Verstappen immediately felt the improvement.
But by then, McLaren had already built a car that worked everywhere, in all conditions. Red Bull’s narrow-window concept was fast on paper but fragile in practice — and ultimately not championship-proof.
So when did Verstappen truly lose the title?
Based on these perspectives, the answer is not a single race or mistake:
• Version 1
Spain cost points — and momentum.
• Version 2
The early-season inconsistency created the gap that Verstappen never fully recovered.
• Version 3
The deeper issue: Red Bull committed to a car philosophy that collapsed under rising competition.
Each version is valid in its own way. And each shows that this championship was slowly slipping away long before Brazil.
Even Verstappen acknowledges the title is effectively out of reach unless Lando Norris suffers a major setback:
“We lost the championship between the first race and Zandvoort. We simply weren’t strong enough overall.”
What this means for the final races — and predictions
Norris now controls the championship with a margin that is nearly mathematically decisive. Even if Piastri wins all remaining rounds and Verstappen triumphs in multiple Grands Prix, Norris’ consistency gives him a safe cushion.
From a performance-analysis perspective — and for anyone following the championship with predictions in mind — the final races offer a clear storyline:
• McLaren holds the strongest all-around package
• Red Bull has improved, but too late
• Verstappen can still win races, but not the title
• The real battle is now Piastri vs Verstappen for P2
Understanding how these trends formed over the season provides valuable context for predicting how the final three rounds may unfold.
